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下半年中国GDP增速将呈逐季改善态势
2023-01-06 13:06  浏览:1
 <晴风村n style="text-align: justify; text-indent: 20px; font-family: Simsun, serif; border-width: 1px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: windowtext;">“<晴风村n style="text-align: justify; text-indent: 20px; font-family: 宋体; border-width: 1px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: windowtext;">上半年,在全球范围内,中国是经济最早反弹的国家。<晴风村n style="text-align: justify; text-indent: 20px; font-family: Simsun, serif; border-width: 1px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: windowtext;">”7<晴风村n style="text-align: justify; text-indent: 20px; font-family: 宋体; border-width: 1px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: windowtext;">月<晴风村n style="text-align: justify; text-indent: 20px; font-family: Simsun, serif; border-width: 1px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: windowtext;">18<晴风村n style="text-align: justify; text-indent: 20px; font-family: 宋体; border-width: 1px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: windowtext;">日,中国金融四十人论坛成员、海通国际首席经济学家孙明春在网易研究局撰文指出,作为最早受到<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">疫情<晴风村n style="text-align: justify; text-indent: 20px; font-family: 宋体; border-width: 1px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: windowtext;">冲击的国家,中国疫情防控率先取得阶段性胜利,很早实现复产复工。对此,瑞银亚洲经济研究主管、首席中国经济学家汪涛认为,从季度环比来说,中国经济<晴风村n style="text-align: justify; text-indent: 20px; font-family: Simsun, serif; border-width: 1px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: windowtext;">“V<晴风村n style="text-align: justify; text-indent: 20px; font-family: 宋体; border-width: 1px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: windowtext;">型<晴风村n style="text-align: justify; text-indent: 20px; font-family: Simsun, serif; border-width: 1px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: windowtext;">”<晴风村n style="text-align: justify; text-indent: 20px; font-family: 宋体; border-width: 1px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: windowtext;">反弹比较明确,也就是说二季度基本恢复到疫情之前的水平。<晴风村n style="text-align: justify; text-indent: 20px; font-family: Simsun, serif; border-width: 1px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: windowtext;">“<晴风村n style="text-align: justify; text-indent: 20px; font-family: 宋体; border-width: 1px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: windowtext;">下半年,中国经济增长同比能恢复到<晴风村n style="text-align: justify; text-indent: 20px; font-family: Simsun, serif; border-width: 1px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: windowtext;">5%<晴风村n style="text-align: justify; text-indent: 20px; font-family: 宋体; border-width: 1px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: windowtext;">以上,全年<晴风村n style="text-align: justify; text-indent: 20px; font-family: Simsun, serif; border-width: 1px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: windowtext;">GDP<晴风村n style="text-align: justify; text-indent: 20px; font-family: 宋体; border-width: 1px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: windowtext;">实现正增长,就业基本恢复。<晴风村n style="text-align: justify; text-indent: 20px; font-family: Simsun, serif; border-width: 1px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: windowtext;">”<晴风村n style="text-align: justify; text-indent: 20px; font-family: 宋体; border-width: 1px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: windowtext;">汪涛表示。

<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">  <晴风村n style="font-family: 微软雅黑; border-width: 1px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: windowtext;">财信研究院副院长伍超明分析,上半年,中国投资需求快于消费需求,基建需求快于其他需求,投资拉动复苏格局明显。下半年,随着前期货币财政刺激政策落地显效加速,中国国内<晴风村n style="font-family: Simsun, serif; border-width: 1px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: windowtext;">GDP<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 1px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: windowtext;">增速将呈逐季改善态势<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 1px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: windowtext;">,全年有望实现<晴风村n style="font-family: Simsun, serif; border-width: 1px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: windowtext;">2.6%-3.0%<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 1px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: windowtext;">的增长。一是基建引领、房地产相随、结构优化,投资拉动经济复苏的格局已然形成。二是在<晴风村n style="font-family: Simsun, serif; border-width: 1px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: windowtext;">“<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 1px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: windowtext;">六保<晴风村n style="font-family: Simsun, serif; border-width: 1px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: windowtext;">”+“<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 1px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: windowtext;">六稳<晴风村n style="font-family: Simsun, serif; border-width: 1px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: windowtext;">”<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 1px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: windowtext;">刺激政策护航下,消费环比回升无悬念,但疫情未退、居民收入承压,特别是低收入群体增收困难,全年社会消费品零售总额转正压力较大。三是全球疫情蔓延加速恶化,将持续制约中国国内出口增速,但全球经济修复不会停滞,外需回暖下中国国内贸易不宜过度悲观。

<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">  <晴风村n style="font-family: 微软雅黑; border-width: 1px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: windowtext;">上半年,中国经济首先是遭受了新冠疫情严重冲击,二季度出现比较明显反弹。孙明春认为,中国一季度<晴风村n style="font-family: Simsun, serif; border-width: 1px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: windowtext;">GDP<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 1px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: windowtext;">下滑严重,二季度<晴风村n style="font-family: Simsun, serif; border-width: 1px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: windowtext;">GDP<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 1px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: windowtext;">增长的主要拉动力是投资,尤其是基建和房地产的投资,预计下半年能够延续上半年这样一个态势,但是有几点要保持警惕:第一,外需。疫情仍是下半年最大的变数,国际疫情大范围蔓延对中国外需的影响,甚至对进口供应链的影响都还有很大风险。二季度中国可能还有一些紧急订单需求,所以出口还不错,但是要小心三四季度出口困难。第二,国内需求。二季度中国工业生产已经正增长,但是消费需求仍是负增长,还未恢复到疫前水平,在一定程度上甚至可能有报复式复苏,一旦报复式复苏结束,可能还会有所回落。第三,自然<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">灾害<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 1px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: windowtext;">。<晴风村n style="font-family: Simsun, serif; border-width: 1px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: windowtext;">6<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 1px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: windowtext;">月份洪涝灾害已经对中国经济产生了一些影响,<晴风村n style="font-family: Simsun, serif; border-width: 1px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: windowtext;">7<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 1px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: windowtext;">月份全国多地正面临<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">洪涝<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 1px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: windowtext;">灾害。<晴风村n style="font-family: Simsun, serif; border-width: 1px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: windowtext;">“<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 1px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: windowtext;">目前,面临的洪涝灾害到底会持续多久、产生多大的影响值得关注。<晴风村n style="font-family: Simsun, serif; border-width: 1px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: windowtext;">”<晴风村n style="font-family: 宋体; border-width: 1px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: windowtext;">孙明春强调。

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